the drama!

i'm in the rutgers' campus center/dining area and two tables across me are a group of friends (1 hispanic/non-white looking guy and 3 black students) yelling at each other about the democratic nomination. and then to the table to my right are 4 muslim/arab girls talking about the election. it is very loud in this dining area, and i hate it.

like i said, i'm not supporting either candidate right now but i do support the democratic party so in the end i'll be fine with either candidate. however, what's irritating is this false notion hillary will end up as the nominee because she won in ohio, and other big states, primarily with her populist message that she ripped off john edwards. but good for her. i'm very disappointed that barack hasn't fully embraced john's message and come through with the promise he made to john about making poverty a central issue. it doesn't help him any when she capitalizes on that demographic in ohio and, soon enough, pennsylvania. but i guess i've gone on a tangent... the idea she can win in... DEMOCRATIC states in the general election is not a valid enough argument. democrats win new york, new jersey, california, and will win them even more so this year when the republican party should have a one in a millionth chance of holding onto the white house in 2009.

barack needs to pull out all the stops in pennsylvania (i'm talking big guns like the kennedy's, john kerry, his new 50 superdelegates waiting in the wings). and he NEEDS to secure a john edwards endorsement at least a week before pennsylvania, where it's so white, and less college educated, and so blue-collar folk. he doesn't need to win in pennsylvania, he just needs to lose by his margin that he lost in texas (which was a 4%). it should be noted he will end up grabbing more delegates from texas than hillary did, though. also, inspiration is fine, barack but you need to inject a whole lot more policies into your speeches (or if not yours, then at least have your opener speaker list down some policies). she can kill you by saying your not substantive enough, and so can mccain (if mccain is the president in 2009, hell has frozen over). hillary can not, in any wild or rational scenerio, surpass barack in pledged delegates for one single reason -- i'd bet my life she will not blow him out in any upcoming state (if texas or ohio are any indication). she can however say "look how far i cut his delegate lead." right now he's leading by roughly 140 delegates. and he lead by that same amount before tuesday. if she can somehow cut that down to around 90 then that's terrible news for BO. not going to happen though. he needs to win by his typical 8-10% margin and lose only by 4-8% and he'll be a-okay.

yes, this will goto the convention but should it have to?

i'd say no. here's why. he will have more pledged delegates no matter if it is a lead of 150 or 50. he will more than likely have the popular vote on his side. he WILL have more states won (primarily red/purple states where a black man won so kudos), he has the youth vote, he has the independent vote). she has very old women, white women, hispanics, and the working class. all typically democrats. there is no risk in those demographics completely disappearing in november if mr. obama is the nominee. there is a far greater risk when you take the flakey youth vote's candidate away from them. it's a risk if you take the independent voter's choice away and you have mccain on the other side. it's risky when you say "no, i know you have the popular vote but you knowwww." she's staying in the race in hopes of cutting his delegate lead (where the chances are abysmally low) and consequently swaying super delegates. well, if it's not mathematically possible to surpass him or tie him, and it's improbable she can close the gap by more than 20 or 30 - how does this warrant a continuing run for the nomination?

barack obama needs to get tough and point out all the corruption and skeletons about the clintons. he needs to appeal to her bases far more. do wisconsin all over again. he needs to point out that his opposition to the iraq war was important but he knows where iraq and america needs to go from here. i honestly don't believe any of this would be hard to do.

in any other election, she would overwhelming be the nominee -- just not this election. it's possible she could end up being the nominee, but only if she subverts democracy. and trust me that will not be a very wise move. with that said, i'm glad it'll be after mississippi, it will be 6 weeks of no contests. I NEED a BREAK.